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05 Apr 2023

Growth rates rebound in Charlotte Region | Takeaways from the most recent US Census data

The US Census released 2022 population estimates at the county-level last week. The latest data confirmed what the state estimates and other relevant data suggested – growth rates rebounded in the Charlotte Region. While COVID-19 was still affecting the country during the timeframe of data collection (July 1 2021 – July1 2022), it was a period of widespread vaccination and was the first year of data which helps paint a picture of population trends post-COVID. Three key takeaways from the 2022 data are that net migration grew dramatically from 2021 levels, Mecklenburg County returned to pre-COVID growth levels, and the outer-ring counties are seeing faster growth than previously seen. In an economy where a region’s success is largely determined by the available talent it can provide regional businesses, these trends are encouraging signs for the future of the Charlotte Region.

Net Migration Surged in 2022

  • 2022 saw higher net migration in the Charlotte Region than any year during the previous decade. This was a result of a rebound in both international and domestic migration which reached levels not previously seen in the 2010s.
  • As natural increase (births-deaths) continues to decline due to an aging population and lower birth rates, the region will continue to become more dependent on in-migration for growth.

Population growth is one of the most important selling points of the region to prospective businesses considering expansion or relocation. As the workforce continues to age, most prominently in suburban and rural counties, attracting young talent will be crucial for continued economic success. At the same time, it is important that the region continues to invest in infrastructure of all types – transportation, water, sewer, schools, etc. – to support this growth moving forward.

Source: US Census, Population Estimates, Vintage 2020 and Vintage 2022 (Vintage 2020 estimates not calibrated to 2020 Census)

Mecklenburg County Bounces Back

  • Population growth bounced back in Mecklenburg County in 2022 with over 19K people added, more than the previous 4 years. This was largely driven by increased net migration of about 12,000, or about 25% higher than the 2017-2019 annual average.
  • Mecklenburg County saw a large jump in international migration which consisted of 2/3 of its overall net migration. The 8,400 international migrants were about 30% higher than the previous peak in the mid-2010s and aligned with higher international migration rates at the state level.
  • In 2021, the future of urban cores was murky as migration data showed large outflows from urban counties. This appears to be an outlier rather than a dramatic shift in people’s preferences. The rebound in growth in Mecklenburg County suggests that many people still prioritize the amenities and proximity of living in or near the urban core.

Source: US Census, Population Estimates, Vintage 2020 and Vintage 2022 (Vintage 2020 estimates not calibrated to 2020 Census); Inner-ring (Cabarrus County, Union County, Lancaster County, York County, Gaston County, Iredell County); Outer-ring (Alexander County, Catawba County, Lincoln County, Cleveland County, Chester County, Chesterfield County, Stanly County, Rowan County).

Population Growth is Accelerating in the Outer-Ring of the Charlotte Region

  • During the first half of the 2010s, growth in the Charlotte Region was largely confined to Mecklenburg County and the inner-ring counties. More recently, the growth has expanded to the outer-ring counties as well with the most significant growth in Lincoln, Rowan, Stanly, and Catawba Counties. Each of those counties went from flat or negative population growth in 2011 to over 1,000 added in 2022.
  • The growth of outer-ring counties was occurring prior to the pandemic but saw their largest jump in population growth in 2022. It is hard to separate this trend from others like increased remote and hybrid work along with the ultra-competitive housing markets of Charlotte and surrounding suburbs during 2021 and 2022. These trends seem unlikely to reverse themselves and we can expect outer-ring counties to continue to see a larger share of in-migration.
  • The appetite, ability, or financial necessity to live further from the urban core seems to be accelerating. Communities like Gastonia, Hickory, and Kannapolis which have invested heavily in placemaking efforts in recent years are in a position to benefit from that trend by providing excellent places where residents can live, work, and play at more affordable prices. The Charlotte Region is filled with historic downtowns that are the perfect building blocks for community development. Communities should continue to invest in placemaking efforts in these locations to capitalize on this growing opportunity.

We don’t know exactly what the post-pandemic world will look like, but it appears that the sharp shift away from urban cores was an outlier and not a signal of what it is to come. At the same time, it looks like communities that had largely missed the rapid population growth in the Charlotte Region are starting to see it shift towards their communities. 

As new growth occurs, it can be unsettling for existing residents. Continuing to invest in infrastructure to keep up with the growth will be essential to address some of the concerns that existing residents may have around increased development. This also presents an opportunity for regional downtowns and mainstreets to double-down on placemaking efforts to create attractive live, work, and play communities and continue to attract residents and investment. 

The region is fortunate to have several examples of how placemaking can help revitalize a community. Replicating these models where there is opportunity will continue to foster growth in more suburban and rural counties.

 

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